Information and Misinformation

1) I've learned that Russian media is disseminating a story that the U.S. has been attempting to install a military base in the Georgian mountains. I have not read anything about this in America, but it has penetrated the Russian media and scares the people. 2) The best website about the Georgian conflict.
3) I'm beginning DPS data collection in the U.S. soon. Also I'm considering adding more items to each Democracy "dimension." I wonder whether it is appropriate, however, to think of each "element" of Democracy (e.g. an independent press) as a unique dimension. I think that perhaps it is more appropriate for Democratic Proclivity to be its own dimension.

I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a Peruvian, a Venezuelan, a native Nigerian, and a native of the West Indies (as well as a couple Americans). A few notes: 1) Hugo Chavez was regarded as not yet a dictator despite an admission that he has eliminated all authority of the legislature effectively destroying the rule of law, has responded with threats and taken away jobs from those speaking out against him, and will likely run again for president (breaking an earlier promise). With this kind of rationalization, an American conception of a legitimate and Democratic government likely shares little with the conception of Democracy for Venezuelans. 2)They discussed Simon Bolivar's dream of a united South America "nation" as a "dream" that would likely never be realized. They think that the countries would never cede authority with the possibility that someone from outside the country would be the leader. This looks to me like an exercise in game theory. But this brings up an interesting possibility: what would the effects of an international deliberation look like for the DPS?

What is this all about?

I've gotten a number of emails essentially asking how this all works. Below is a quick review, but I'd encourage you to review the sample chapter.

The DPM will use all those environmental conditions to predict an individual’s Democratic Proclivity score. It is certainly true that Democracy needs a conducive environment to flourish. As I collect Proclivity scores from people around the world, I’m also collecting self-reported environmental data. When I put the model together, I will correlate the actual Proclivity scores with environmental data (both self-reported environmental data and more objective data). Eventually I should be able to predict based on environmental data how likely it is that one individual will support a democratic rule of law, speak out against democratic reforms, actively participate in democratic coups, etc.

Of course I believe that we can manipulate certain variables to artificially increase Democratic Proclivity (e.g. Conditioning Democracy—creating positive democratic experiences for people; democratic education—teaching correct democratic practice and theory; etc. etc.)…

Condition Georgia?

As Georgia has grown more Westernized and leaned closer and closer to the leaning tower of NATO, many analysts think that Georgia's people were believed, erroneously, that they lived under the shadow of NATO's veil of protection. Now of course it has been made clear that the protection of the West extended not far beyond angry rhetoric. Not quite part of the liberalized elite circle, but not terribly far from it, Georgians must no doubt be suffering from a biting disappointment.

In a burgeoning democratic state, the support of the people for Democracy might likely be on the fringe after such a disappointment. It is not hard to imagine how disappointment might turn to bitterness, doubt, and potentially anger. Is this "mission critical" time to (re)capture the hearts and minds of a beacon of Caucasus Democracy? I believe that, indeed, this might represent an opportunity to put into action a Civil Psychology mission to Condition Democracy in the nation...

Any thoughts?

P.S. the picture is of marauding Russian warrior statues above the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg

Greg's Warnings

Thanks to Greg in Sweeden who sent me a great email regarding both operational information and thoughts about the major project concepts!
On SORM-2 "...It is a sort of equivalent to the Echelon system in the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. All ISPs, by law, must give all encryption codes to the FSB and a number of other law enforcement agencies..."

Greg (an expert on Russian media) also warned me that Russians "hate" the word Democracy: "So much so that in the 2003-4 election cycle it disappeared from the rhetoric of most of the parties. The party that stuck with the democracy message was decimated in the elections. It has been used and misused for a while now, there is an association with the 'Shock Therapy' economic programme, which has deeply hurt many ordinary Russians. They hate the word, prior to this democracy was more associated with the ability to consume, buy and choose goods and services."

I wonder whether my research will support this line of thinking... I question whether an analysis of the state-controlled media can accurately reflect the feelings of individuals (especially with the heavy misuse of the word). I think that the DPS analysis of Democratic concepts independent of the word "Democracy" will be especially critical here.

Overcoming the SORM-2 system might prove challenging. I suppose that much is dependent on whether the ISP gets tagged to be checked. They can't possibly review ALL of the data being sent on Russian servers,

could they?

Russia's Conflict of Interest-Georgia

The Black Sea silhouettes some of the Balkans' most beautiful raw nature. The gateway to the Mediterranean provides natural resources—everything from a ssplendorous beach environment to sustenance—to the oil-rich surrounding area. Now the idyllic waterway shadows a nation in turmoil, a region of growing uncertainty, and international trouble ahead. Not more than 700 miles from my earlier destination of Kazan and only a few miles from the tourist mecca, Sochi, Georgia has exploded into the international spotlight. It’s neighbors Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia; an arm’s reach from Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Romania, and the Ukraine. Suffice it to say that the area is in the middle of a strategically important, hotly contested region.

Now with the burgeoning number of scholars, diplomats, students, and professionals reading the blog and emailing me, I will address the issue a little bit on the blog for everyone. You can get the latest updates (and really great links) from the Georgia Ministry of Foreign Affairs blog. This has proved a reliable source of direct information from Georgia amid possible cyberattacks. With everything happening so fast over there, I most want to focus on one thing: the conditions for Russian people to accept the actions of their government. Things are getting scarier in Russia. Have you heard any Russian media criticizing the Russian response to Georgia? I have not—and I’ve looked and asked around. A lot. No criticism from Russian NGO’s or from any other Russian source. I do not find this surprising for today’s Russia, but this is important to recognize. No matter how united any Western Democracy stands on an issue, there is always some public criticism. But Russia has no independent media and no independently elected governors. Perhaps we are witnessing some of the first internationally visible signs of this.

What’s more, there is little clamoring for more openness. The government under Putin has consistently moved more authoritarian, and the Russian people have put up with it. There are very few elements of modern Democracy left in Russia. The country may call itself a Democracy, but there are fewer and fewer political structures to support this. Without public demand, independent media will never return to Russia. Without a nation of high Democratic Propensity (conditions which promote citizens’ Democratic Proclivity), I believe the nation will continue to revert. Without citizens who desire Democracy, Democracy will not return. It doesn't seem like Russian universities are helping, but what’s certain is that there is more scariness to come as power shifts more in the hands of the few.

It starts now—although it never should have stopped—Russia needs democratization. Democratization is a battle inside the minds of people as much as it is a battle over the presidency or a capital city. Democracy needs a guerrilla warrior and guerrilla tactics in an area overcome with non-democratic circumstances. And before you question the desires of Russian people, do not let racism take hold of you: Russian people are not somehow a different “class” of people that want entirely different things than other people. Underlying all of our differences is a common desire—the desire for freedom and peace.

P.S. the picture is "The Death of Socrates" found in a St. Petersburg art museum

Current Reading and Responses

Publicly responding to a few email comments: I've added the Psychohistory link and I'm interested in the potential contributions of this line of research to the DPM. Also I've added the Political Psychology Research, Inc. link. They have some very interesting publications. Now you can review the complete sample chapter. This should answer a lot of questions I've been posed. If you still have questions, consider posting them as comments instead of emails so everyone can hear the answers.
If you are interested in helping to administer the DPS, please email me. I'm trying to establish enough scores for a baseline.
In a couple days I will offer a lot of criticism of the current attempts (by the IRI, Pew Center, and others) to measure any kind of Democracy "endorsement."

Worldwide Readers: Conditioning Democracy

The Conditioning Democracy readership is growing daily. Many of you have responded to the emails I've sent you, and many thanks for your expressions of support. And for those that have not yet responded: I've contacted you based on your demonstrated expertise and potential interest in Operational Psychology for Civil Society. Remember the blog is only highlighting the development of this project; for detailed information or to participate in this project email me. So a quick shout-out to the readers in Canada, Peru, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Romania, Israel, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Russia, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and 20 states of the USA!

I want to reduce the length of the DPS. But first I will have to gather DPS scores from a large number of people across the world. I'll establish a baseline of Democratic Proclivity scores of individuals in strong democracies. Then I'll look for strong correlations within the scale and eliminate redundancies…

Mastering the Mission Challenges

Now I want to give you some operational challenges I've run into in Russia's Operation Civil Elixir. All Deliberative Democracy missions for the purpose of Conditioning Democracy share many challenges for Conditioning Democracy. In Russia I battled with one of those—language and cultural differences. Few people anywhere speak English, and outside of major tourist centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg, even fewer. I realize that the operational psychologist with native-level understanding has a significant advantage. But the second-best option I felt was a carefully-trained native data-collector and facilitator. Fortunately, I have much experience training facilitators (for more on why facilitated discussion is absolutely essential to operations, see the sample chapter)… Of course, there are a wide variety of challenges in training facilitators with little democratic experience in an environment that discourages the development of democracy. For instance, successfully teaching a young Russian facilitator to balance a conversation—particularly between the sexes & between older and younger participants—proves akin to teaching a new language. Besides language, challenges include relating democracy concepts with DD programs, promoting programs for increasing participation, maintaining DPS improvements over time, institutionalization of DD programs (and many others).

Administering the DPS is crucial to mission success. In order to measure the success of a DD program, you've got to measure proclivity before and after participation. Currently the DPS is 15 pages long. So I must convince people who are already putting time and potentially safety on the line by participating in Deliberative Democracy to fill out this questionnaire. Twice. Not an easy task. Exporting scores out of the country is another challenge, but one more easily overcome with Google docs… I worry about the monitoring of internet activity: is it better to use a privately-owned computer at a flat or an internet café. All the internet is state controlled but still this question depends at least partially on another question: which to fear more—the FSB or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs? In any case, small-scale work done on a tourist visa I doubt will attract much attention in Russia. Looking ahead to other countries—Cuba, Iran, China, etc.—I worry more.

Finding the Center (w/ pics)

To understand what it's like for people in a country, you usually look for the middle: What's the median income? What's the average living conditions? What is the typical job? So from one extreme--densely-populated St. Petersburg--to the other--rural village life--I recently found a more middle-of-the-road Russian city, Cheboksary.

Citizens of Cheboksary, capital of the Chuvash Republic, affectionately describe their city as "a very big village." There are very few international tourists here, and both the Russian and Chuvash spirit bind the half-million residents of Cheboksary together. "I see friends every day I go for a walk and every time I shop on the other side of town," a girl told me. Here there is a strong middle, and everyone seems to be together in it. Across Russia now I have begun to see evidence of a strong middle-class. Whatever the numbers say, people in general have access to a wide range of goods and services like America or Western Europe. And similarly, most people may not be able to afford every want and desire, but more than hope for dreams to come true, they are confident that they will get what they want and have everything they will need. This, of course, is relatively new for Russians, and something like the Green Acres family, sometimes Russians persistently desire familiar relics more than modern comforts. Take one ride on the sardine-packed Soviet-era trains and this becomes immediately apparent...

Despite warnings from many Russians now that people in Russia "can't afford" to help strangers, I have noticed a plethora of evidence of civil society in Cheboksary. Below I have two pictures: one of a shopping center
inside which there was a box (second picture)
for donations to support a church. And there was even money inside!

Healthy democracies need a strong middle, and I think that Democracies actually create and maintain their own middle. Can't wait to see what the numbers say the middle thinks about Democracy!!

A Democratic Village (w/ pics)

The Russian countryside dominates the landscape of the nation. Summer's massive forests, vast green plains, and interwoven waterways starkly contrast the concrete jungle of bustling metropolis centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Villages dot this tremendous countryside like cayenne pepper on ice cream and jettison both city conveniences and Western comforts. Some villages without electricity, all without plumbing. The toilet is a hole in the ground. Enter a village banya [transliterated], a separate tiny log building next to the log house. Inside you smoke and steam the sweat from your body to take a shower; use a small pot to pour water on yourself and to rinse your mouth after brushing your teeth (if you choose to do so). The water comes from an open (and rusting) 55 gallon metal drum. There are no shops nearby, so look to the garden for your food. Don't mind the worms, "they're extra protein," I'm told. But let go of your Western preconceptions of luxury--this life is comfortable for the villagers, and it was even comfortable for me. The villagers are friendly and the cuisine delectable. The summertime Russian village vaguely reminds me of the homeyness of Southern country. Certainly this life differs from city life, and we must consider this common yet alternate lifestyle in democratization planning.

More than simply consider the village alternative, I think Civil Psychology Operations can thrive in villages. Somewhat autonomously run, whole villages might be persuaded to utilize and institutionalize Deliberative Democracy. With a widespread level of participation: results could be more quickly implemented, and outcomes should be more appealing to the entire population. The operational challenges are different, but I feel that I have recognized many of them now. The firsthand village experience from an American perspective leaves me confident that I can also overcome them with the ideas that I have developed.

Democracy Next to Godliness (w/ pics)

I spent the morning reconnoitering in Kazan, the capital of the Republic of Tartarstan. A bastion of the Tatar culture, it's a notable departure from Orthodox-culture dominated areas of Russia. Islamic fervor is palpable as the cupola of mosques touch the sky. Arabic and Tatar flood the shops and streets, and even beggars wear Tatar-Islamic clothes. Here in Kazan, Russia melds the cultures of West and Middle East into the gridiron of the suitably unique region. American style crams the Mega-Mall with products in high Russian demand; inside traditional Middle-Eastern hookah lounges blend with Russian cafes and stores, marketing wares in as many different languages.

I spent much of my time with an English-speaking girl, who described Kazan to me in a heavy British accent from a modern Russian's perspective. "Russia is a big place, so of course there must be room for many religions." I remember this phrase in particular because it struck me--only 20 years after state-enforced atheism, there is a sentiment of religious accommodation. Where did this come from?

I imagine that Kazan will likely contain some of the most interesting data. The region calls itself a Republic--the Republic of Tatarstan--but how democratically do people behave? How do people relate their faith, a long imperial tradition, a deeply-rooted culture, and a communist past to a continuing democratic transition? How do they perceive democracy handles the problems associated with the practice of many religions in one big Russia? And what do the people feel is the future of Democracy in the region? O and one more--if Islam works with democracy here, could this area be uniquely suited to function in such a way or could Arabic countries adopt similar structures?

On an operational note--my new friend tells me that Kazan can be a dangerous place for foreigners. I don't doubt her as I creep ever ever closer to the Middle East. I have a few ideas for mission techniques, however, and I have completed the electronic form for recording DPS data online worldwide.

Microbusiness (w/ pics)

Every corner throughout Russia—from the countryside to the cities—yields a thriving micro-business. Villagers sell fruits and vegetables and веник reeds along the sides of roads. Trinket salespeople crowd city sidewalks, battery-powered furry creatures beep and walk in every direction. Cart vendors sell everything from beer to ice cream and magazines to souvenirs. But it isn't what they sell that is surprising, it is the sheer quantity of businesses that overwhelms me. Everywhere, mini-buses, amateur taxis, hustlers on trains; there is an entire class of people that eek out a living as a sole proprietor, conducting every element of business from sales to service on his or her own and without outside support for inevitably minuscule business ventures.

I think that the capability of an individual to construct such a micro-business might impact that person's proclivity for a democratic governmental transition, and in new democracies, might impact the degree of content with democratic government. Imagine yourself in the situation: on Wednesday the communist government provides every element of life for you, from health care to living space all the way to your daily diet. On Thursday the new capitalist democracy gains a foothold and you are on your own. Maybe the company you work for collapses; maybe you had worked for a government agency that no longer exists. Now you need to find money to provide for your family. If you can make something, sell something, grow something you are not in a terrible circumstance. If you can not and rely on finding a job, perhaps the economy is slow to start and your family starves to death in the mean time. I think that a strong micro-business economy will help predict Democratic Proclivity, and I think that Russia has this particular platform for democratic success.

Even just a hundred years ago this was likely not a serious problem because of the infrastructure of economies—worldwide, small agricultural enterprises made up a majority of the world superpowers' economies. Every Joe and Jane had a small farm and they could sell what they produced and make a sustainable income. As the world became more industrialized and infrastructure complicated, people more and more rely on local, national, and inter-national cooperation for their sustenance. Corporatization has cost the private sector its individual independence. Obviously not terrible, but post-fascist and post-communist nations will inevitably struggle (at least initially) to maintain their economic strength and stability. In the meantime, micro-businesses can fill the gaps.

Discussing a Dream (w/ pics)

Definitely in St. Petersburg, and across the country that I have seen, Russians certainly enjoy much freedom. I did not feel suppressed in any way nor have I noticed any others exhibiting signs of suppressed freedom. Granted, I have not seen any demonstrations against popular political parties but if there is really any suppression of freedom it is not overt. Neither am I surprised that there are no demonstrations against the political culture--Russians in general seem happy with life and freely talk about political affairs. Of course life here is much different from America, but I see lots of smiling people, hear plenty laughter, witness many small kindnesses as Russian tourists visit the palaces that only a few years ago housed the super-elite and no common man had the pleasure of visiting. I also feel less pressure from police here than in America.
One note regards the role of [transliterated] babushkas (old women, lit. grandmothers). In the USSR babushkas played a special role—to watch what was going on and report anything interesting. They are still prevalent around Russia—I have never seen so many old women. They are quick to criticize and you must lend them your ear. They yell at strangers like it is nothing—I sense that though their role has changed, they feel a social responsibility to keep things culturally whole. I suppose that they are quite conservative, but I am not sure.
My companions and I happened upon a political conversation in Saint Petersburg. So as not to contaminate DPS scores I stayed quiet but curious. One girl said that life in the USSR was unimaginable. She was too young to remember herself, but her parents (originally from Kazakhstan and the Ukraine) tell her stories frequently. She talked about how they were issued food cards once every month. They would exchange these for a few groceries—only the bare essentials.
Another girl said that she liked many things about the USSR (although she was not old enough to remember either). Families did not have too lock their doors—the neighborhood was safe. Young people lied together in communal flats. School was free. Housing was free—although cramped (up to four families would live in flat like the one we were staying in St. Petersburg. Scientists were issued cars and private housing. I swear the very next sentence was "People were equal."
The conversation carried on more in accelerated Russian so I did not understand much. The tone was intense, excited, but not angry. What was definitely apparent was a confidence in these young people to talk about political topics without fear to argue and disagree. I was not surprised at the girl's remarks about the equality of people in the Soviet Union, nor am I surprised about her admiration of the communist government. Clearly there are benefits to any socialist system (namely free things), but I think that those who know Democracy and live under Communist Socialism know that the benefits are but smoke and mirrors written in the wind and swift rivers…
Of course this illustrates the impetus for Operation Civil Elixir and future missions of the same kind—Russian young people should know Democracy in its best form and pine for its institution everywhere. Without this foundation of support, Democracy in Russia teeters on the brink of icy cliffs.
I know I mentioned micro-business in the last post, but I promise to get to it tomorrow.

Dead Fish... and Art (w/ pics)

Cold, dry, dead fish. Seemingly rotten and smelling of a hot day at the dock, this tasty Russian snack goes well with warm beer. Next time you see a dead fish on the road, don't think of it as trash--instead think "Fish Jerky." Like potato chips, salty, and yet probably somewhat healthier. Maybe.

If you can believe it after reading that vignette things are much better than they were in the previous post. I would stop short of describing my acculturation as adapting, but I am finding some kind of balance. Last night I cooked my specialty for the whole household--BBQ shrimp. Despite their negative expectations at the supermarket, everyone liked it very much. I had to make some significant ingredient adaptations, but it worked fairly well.

I've been thinking about a possible additional consideration for the DPM: art. It seems that art might be an indicator of the level of freedom that people enjoy. St. Petersburg's Church of The Savior on the Blood was shut down throughout Communism's stronghold on the area. The Church with its magnificent artwork went uncared for and deteriorated to the point that it had to undergo major restoration. As a warehouse, its marble faded and the beautiful artwork lost its luster. Without freedom, I think that art is stifled and people are less likely to pride themselves in the talents and treasures of their own people. Russian people seem to treasure even their Imperial era much more so than Sovietka.

I am sorry for the long delay between posts--it was difficult to get to internet in Saint Petersburg. Now I am in a little town in Russia's southern region and I have regular internet access. This post is also somewhat outdated. Next post will address Russia's micro-business economy which flourishes and my thoughts about region-specific operatives in future missions to condense the acculturation process.

Am I Breaking Down?

Living conditions may represent my biggest challenge and likely struck me as the biggest difference from the West. Most kverteerya (flats) comprise rooms none of which much bigger than an American bathroom. Bedrooms, kitchen, hallway each no more than 80 square feet. All the windows are barred with steel, like most other windows around th city. Exposed plumbing and heating fixtures jut from the plaster walls; I showered with the space heater. My flat is housed in a rather dilapidated old green building. Walk through the street entrance into a parking-lot/courtyard, pass through the graffiti-covered and broken-down entranceway, turn the giant key in the antique deadbolt four full turns to the right, push the door gently and you're in. As you might imagine the hallways are narrow. Very narrow. There are clothes hanging from every exposed surface to dry. The bathtub doubles as the clothes-washing basin. The kitchen has no room for a pantry--groceries are bought daily from the market. A tiny sink, stove, and table round it out. I understand this flat is nice.

Nearly everything is different from the West in Russia: from the people to the architecture to the fauna to the food, I realize with every passing second that this place is barely short of a whole other world. It is bright outside all day and night long. St. Petersburg's "white nights" have kept me going on something like 8 hours of sleep in the past 72 hours. And today is just beginning [well it was when I began the first part of this post]. Fortunately alcohol is ever-plentiful. Beer and wine are comparatively priced (perhaps slightly more) than America. Last night even my Russian companions and I shared a steaming beer to prevent catching cold. It would have been better with honey, they told me. Vodka, however, is very inexpensive. But be prepared to drink at least half a bottle. Moving on to the people--not that this is particularly surprising, but for instance, women don't react similarly to situations in the same way that American women react to similar situations. Last night we walked for hours in the rain without umbrellas just to make the most of the night. We weren't alone. Hygiene and house cleaning is different. I can't quite describe it correctly, but perhaps it is that the purpose is not health, sanitation, or cleanliness, but rather proper working order.

Fortunately for me I am still in good health (although I am not sure how long that will last with the extremely high sodium content in all the food). My spirit is tempted to fade however. It is very difficult for me to stay positive in the face of so much social stress especially with the food choices available. I realize that the operational goals of the mission are dependent on my acculturation and happy companionship, but with very few comforts of the West I am constantly tempted to jump ship: shell it out on a Western-style hotel (even though I still can not be sure how Western it is). I'm staying strong, however, for now. For now.

St. Petersburg: The Setting (w/ pics)

Bristling like an ancient snake shedding its withered and crumbling skin, Russia sheds Sovietka as if the rock of its stubbornly devoted people grabbed it whole--the new nation borne, continuing to birth itself years after its democratic turn. The traces are omnipresent--from monstrous soviet era military equipment adopted for construction use to every babushkas in most every dom, to St. Petersburg's plethora of museums to Moscow's bare bones function only airport.
Russia surprising, at least, chocking perhaps at times. The first part of the mission is to acculturate and this will take some time. I had expected Moscow's airport to be over-engineered and technologically advance; instead I was greeted with bare concrete facades surrounding rickety ancient escalators in an un-air conditioned facility. The pattern held true as my companions picked me u from the similarly accommodated St. Petersburg airport. Minivans rigged to cram a dozen people are ubiquitous--tiny seats cram in every direction, each occupied by strangers like hitchhikers, picked up along the way. These seats enclose standing room for even more. Add this to rainy overcast driving conditions--not to mention stripe-less roads ans reckless drivers--and Geico mustn't have let the door hit them in the face on the way out.

People walk in Russia. Far. Women dress themselves in clothing too sexy for American streets. Everyone seems to hustle--bargaining is a way of life--and tiny businesses cram every nook. Lone babushkas selling bunched flowers and berries or vegetables beg for customers in St. Petersburg. Open-air markets are everywhere, and with ware ranging from unidentifiable vegetables to American sunglasses, the city reminds me of a giant farmers' and Flea market.

Please forgive any spelling errors as I have little time to type! I will post more about the setting, hopefully later today.

Mission Anxiety Through the Roof

A frantic day preparing every last minute detail and overcoming several major obstacles only prefaced the tension at dinner tonight. Sitting down to eat with my parents at the table, I could hardly look them in the eye. My father was silent, and the silence spoke quite loudly from a man like my father. His voice usually audible over his roaring boat engine on fishing trips, the glimmer of his eye was pale and the blank glare beat down my enthusiasm and optimism like Freddie Mac beats down its slight lobbying competitors on Capitol Hill. My mom, shielding her grave concerns in a comforting pretense of supportive concern, finalized her understanding of the details of my whereabouts. Her biggest challenge was overcoming the broken English Google translation of the Russian itinerary I had emailed her. My parents are not happy with me, and perhaps I can understand why.
Operation Civil Elixir has its dangers. "What if someone stops me while I am on the computer?" "What if the participants report the research to the government?" "What if I am being watched the whole time?!" All of these questions and many more were thrown about tonight and for the past while. All these questions were asked under the pretense that encouraging a group of young people to decide as a group--democratically--how best to support local orphans with money from caring people is not only illegal, but dangerous and potentially deadly for an American. It may not be, depending on how Russian law enforcement interprets the new law, but it very well may be. Which brings me to what is more important than the dangers: the benefits.
True: I still do not have a outlet for publishing the massive amounts of knowledge and data that I am collecting. True: My methodology is brand new and unproven and my theory might not work. True: I am working this mission with very little fiduciary resources and no outside government or institutional support. But I am confident, and I believe just naive enough, to put everything on the line--my financial stability, my safety, my credibility, my time--trusting in myself that I can make it happen. And I can. My theory will work and I will find a publisher and lives will be saved and lives will be improved and nations will change. The implications of Operation Civil elixir reach far beyond my comparatively insignificant problems ad insufficiencies. If I can prove that it is possible for trained professionals to infiltrate the minds of citizens of countries on the brink of Democracy; if I can prove that those citizens can participate and institutionalize local Deliberative Democracy programs; if I can prove that these citizens then crave freedom for themselves more intensely than any craving instituted at the point of bayonet; then the world's destined concourse to freedom for all will be paved with intellects and enthusiasm instead of bodies and fear.
I wish I could name all of the people that have begun to pave that concourse with me (like "anonymous" who commented on a previous post), but for now it must suffice to mention that they have been many, and hopefully more to come. If you believe that people can live together in friendship, if you believe that we can show those who are living in fear to live with hope, if you want to see me come out of this safe, if you believe in Democracy and want to save the lives of those who protect it: Support this mission. Please leave a comment. Not too much to ask, right? And if you don't, please let me know why--I'll do my best to respond (or even maybe reconsider!). If you have a question, please ask--I would love to explain. Hope to hear from you soon.

The Fun Part: Guessing...

Only a few days to the mission go-ahead. The tension is building. Today I made at least one important decision—I will not bring the money for the orphans with me to Russia. First of all, I do not have it yet. Secondly, I think this will benefit the research methodologically. In the practice of Democracy, people do not recognize immediate results. Even if policy is immediately changed, any results will necessarily take time to surface. Now my lack of preparedness has a purpose. Or am I just rationalizing? Comments are welcome.

 

Item 2: Without having the Democratic Propensity Model set up, and without extensive political science research on Democratization, I have guessed some factors that should be important in predicting Democratic Proclivity scores. To accompany the DPS, I’ll look at: age, gender, ethnicity, level of education, religion (type and level of affiliation), occupation, income, and projected income. Also, to compare my results with the established Pew Center’s under-thought global survey on Democratic attitudes, I am including some of the items that Pew Global and the IRI used.

Preparing the DPS

I am spending the remainder of my Saturday preparing the Democratic Proclivity Scale for use in Russia. I am having it translated to Russian and another source will be translating it back to check for accuracy. I also need to finalize the layout for ease of printing. I can’t risk bringing physical copies to Russia, so I am storing a pdf on Google Docs to print while I am there. One remaining question is how I shall transport the data back.

Advice will be appreciated! Consider these problems: 1) My security and data protection—I can’t transport physical copies across the border 2) There will be a large volume of data in the form of Likert scale and multiple choice responses 3) Access to technology—I will not have my own laptop for security reasons.

Operation Civil Elixir Relevant Political Climate

From YaleGlobal

(http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6607): In 2006, The Russian Federation began enforcing a law that many diplomats (including the U.S. Secretary of State) fear will strangle Russian Civil Society, enabling Putin to retain more political control than ever and reinventing Russia's old authoritarian regime. Already suffering from a declining independent press, Russia's democracy seems to grow ever frailer.
"The bill will have three primary effects. First, it will limit Russian citizens’ constitutional right to create unregistered but formalized civil society groups (those with statutes and governing bodies): registration authorities will have to be notified in all cases. The order of such notification will be regulated by the decree of the federal Government and not by law, while the list of reasons for refusal are ample and unclear.
Secondly, the bill will tighten controls over all existing Russian NGOs. The government will be able to exercise more control over NGOs’ work and expenditure, and will be able to ask any organization to provide any documentation at any time. In addition, each of the hundreds of thousand of existing NGOs will have to re-register with the authorities. Given the high level of corruption in Russia, this proposition will leave ample space for abuse. It will also immediately paralyze the work of thousands of charity, cultural, youth, social, human rights, environmental and other organizations.
Thirdly, particularly tough measures will be applied to foreign NGOs operating in Russia. The bill outlaws affiliates of foreign NGOs, and requires existing organizations to re-register as exclusively Russian, which may prove legally impossible. At the same time, foreign citizens who are not permanent residents of the Russian Federation will not be able to become founders or members of Russian NGOs."
"In a letter to the speaker of the State Duma, US Congressman Chris Smith - chairman of the US Helsinki Commission - said the planned new law 'would have a chilling effect on civil society in the Russian Federation...and seriously undermine the rights of individuals in Russia to freedom of association.'”

From Eurasia Daily Monitor (http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372897): U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with President Vladimir Putin and president-elect Dmitry Medvedev. They also met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. But in response to the new NGO regulations, Condoleezza Rice met with Russia’s liberal intelligentsia--"critics" of the Putin administration on March 18. Reportedly, these delegates were handpicked by the Russian Foreign Ministry...

From the U.S. Department of State
( http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1006.html#entry_requirements): "The Government of Russia does not recognize the standing of the U.S. diplomatic mission to intervene in visa matters, including situations in which an American is stranded because of an expired visa. U.S. citizens should also be aware that Russian immigration and visa laws change regularly, and the implementation of new regulations has not always been transparent or predictable. The Russian visa system includes a number of provisions that may be unfamiliar to Americans, including: Sponsorship, Entry Visas, Limitations on Length of Stay, Exit Visas, Migration Cards, Visa Registration, Transit Visas, Restricted Areas...
Travelers should ensure that their visas reflect intended activities in Russia (e.g., tourism, study, business, etc.)...
In October 2007, the Russian government made significant changes to its rules regarding the length of stay permitted to most foreign visitors. For any visa issued on or after October 18, 2007, unless that visa specifically authorizes employment or study, a foreigner may stay in Russia only 90 days in any 180-day period. This applies to business, tourist, humanitarian and cultural visas, among other categories...
U.S. citizens should be aware that Russian police officers have the authority to stop people and request their identity and travel documents at any time, and without cause. Due to the possibility of random document checks by police, travelers should carry their original passports, migration cards, and visas with them at all times...
Acts of terrorism, including bombings and hostage taking, have occurred in Russia over the last several years. Bombings have occurred at Russian government buildings, hotels, tourist sites, markets, entertainment venues, schools, residential complexes, and on public transportation including subways, buses, trains, and scheduled commercial flights. Hostage-taking incidents have included a raid on a school that resulted in horrific losses of life of children, teachers, and parents...
There is no current indication that American institutions or citizens are targets, but there is a general risk of American citizens being victims of indiscriminate terrorist attacks. American citizens in Russia should be aware of their personal surroundings and follow good security practices. Americans are urged to remain vigilant and exercise good judgment and discretion when using any form of public transportation. When traveling, Americans may wish to provide a friend, family member, or coworker a copy of their itinerary. Americans should avoid large crowds and public gatherings that lack enhanced security measures. Travelers should also exercise a high degree of caution and remain alert when patronizing restaurants, casinos, nightclubs, bars, theaters, etc., especially during peak hours of business...
It is not uncommon for foreigners in general to become victims of harassment, mistreatment and extortion by law enforcement and other officials. Police do not need to show probable cause in order to stop, question or detain individuals. If stopped, travelers should try to obtain, if safe to do so, the officer’s name, badge number, and patrol car number, and note where the stop happened, as this information assists local officials in identifying the perpetrators. Authorities are concerned about these incidents and have cooperated in investigating such cases. Travelers should report crimes to the U.S. Embassy or the nearest Consulate General...