Information and Misinformation

1) I've learned that Russian media is disseminating a story that the U.S. has been attempting to install a military base in the Georgian mountains. I have not read anything about this in America, but it has penetrated the Russian media and scares the people. 2) The best website about the Georgian conflict.
3) I'm beginning DPS data collection in the U.S. soon. Also I'm considering adding more items to each Democracy "dimension." I wonder whether it is appropriate, however, to think of each "element" of Democracy (e.g. an independent press) as a unique dimension. I think that perhaps it is more appropriate for Democratic Proclivity to be its own dimension.

I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a Peruvian, a Venezuelan, a native Nigerian, and a native of the West Indies (as well as a couple Americans). A few notes: 1) Hugo Chavez was regarded as not yet a dictator despite an admission that he has eliminated all authority of the legislature effectively destroying the rule of law, has responded with threats and taken away jobs from those speaking out against him, and will likely run again for president (breaking an earlier promise). With this kind of rationalization, an American conception of a legitimate and Democratic government likely shares little with the conception of Democracy for Venezuelans. 2)They discussed Simon Bolivar's dream of a united South America "nation" as a "dream" that would likely never be realized. They think that the countries would never cede authority with the possibility that someone from outside the country would be the leader. This looks to me like an exercise in game theory. But this brings up an interesting possibility: what would the effects of an international deliberation look like for the DPS?

What is this all about?

I've gotten a number of emails essentially asking how this all works. Below is a quick review, but I'd encourage you to review the sample chapter.

The DPM will use all those environmental conditions to predict an individual’s Democratic Proclivity score. It is certainly true that Democracy needs a conducive environment to flourish. As I collect Proclivity scores from people around the world, I’m also collecting self-reported environmental data. When I put the model together, I will correlate the actual Proclivity scores with environmental data (both self-reported environmental data and more objective data). Eventually I should be able to predict based on environmental data how likely it is that one individual will support a democratic rule of law, speak out against democratic reforms, actively participate in democratic coups, etc.

Of course I believe that we can manipulate certain variables to artificially increase Democratic Proclivity (e.g. Conditioning Democracy—creating positive democratic experiences for people; democratic education—teaching correct democratic practice and theory; etc. etc.)…

Condition Georgia?

As Georgia has grown more Westernized and leaned closer and closer to the leaning tower of NATO, many analysts think that Georgia's people were believed, erroneously, that they lived under the shadow of NATO's veil of protection. Now of course it has been made clear that the protection of the West extended not far beyond angry rhetoric. Not quite part of the liberalized elite circle, but not terribly far from it, Georgians must no doubt be suffering from a biting disappointment.

In a burgeoning democratic state, the support of the people for Democracy might likely be on the fringe after such a disappointment. It is not hard to imagine how disappointment might turn to bitterness, doubt, and potentially anger. Is this "mission critical" time to (re)capture the hearts and minds of a beacon of Caucasus Democracy? I believe that, indeed, this might represent an opportunity to put into action a Civil Psychology mission to Condition Democracy in the nation...

Any thoughts?

P.S. the picture is of marauding Russian warrior statues above the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg

Greg's Warnings

Thanks to Greg in Sweeden who sent me a great email regarding both operational information and thoughts about the major project concepts!
On SORM-2 "...It is a sort of equivalent to the Echelon system in the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. All ISPs, by law, must give all encryption codes to the FSB and a number of other law enforcement agencies..."

Greg (an expert on Russian media) also warned me that Russians "hate" the word Democracy: "So much so that in the 2003-4 election cycle it disappeared from the rhetoric of most of the parties. The party that stuck with the democracy message was decimated in the elections. It has been used and misused for a while now, there is an association with the 'Shock Therapy' economic programme, which has deeply hurt many ordinary Russians. They hate the word, prior to this democracy was more associated with the ability to consume, buy and choose goods and services."

I wonder whether my research will support this line of thinking... I question whether an analysis of the state-controlled media can accurately reflect the feelings of individuals (especially with the heavy misuse of the word). I think that the DPS analysis of Democratic concepts independent of the word "Democracy" will be especially critical here.

Overcoming the SORM-2 system might prove challenging. I suppose that much is dependent on whether the ISP gets tagged to be checked. They can't possibly review ALL of the data being sent on Russian servers,

could they?

Russia's Conflict of Interest-Georgia

The Black Sea silhouettes some of the Balkans' most beautiful raw nature. The gateway to the Mediterranean provides natural resources—everything from a ssplendorous beach environment to sustenance—to the oil-rich surrounding area. Now the idyllic waterway shadows a nation in turmoil, a region of growing uncertainty, and international trouble ahead. Not more than 700 miles from my earlier destination of Kazan and only a few miles from the tourist mecca, Sochi, Georgia has exploded into the international spotlight. It’s neighbors Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia; an arm’s reach from Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Romania, and the Ukraine. Suffice it to say that the area is in the middle of a strategically important, hotly contested region.

Now with the burgeoning number of scholars, diplomats, students, and professionals reading the blog and emailing me, I will address the issue a little bit on the blog for everyone. You can get the latest updates (and really great links) from the Georgia Ministry of Foreign Affairs blog. This has proved a reliable source of direct information from Georgia amid possible cyberattacks. With everything happening so fast over there, I most want to focus on one thing: the conditions for Russian people to accept the actions of their government. Things are getting scarier in Russia. Have you heard any Russian media criticizing the Russian response to Georgia? I have not—and I’ve looked and asked around. A lot. No criticism from Russian NGO’s or from any other Russian source. I do not find this surprising for today’s Russia, but this is important to recognize. No matter how united any Western Democracy stands on an issue, there is always some public criticism. But Russia has no independent media and no independently elected governors. Perhaps we are witnessing some of the first internationally visible signs of this.

What’s more, there is little clamoring for more openness. The government under Putin has consistently moved more authoritarian, and the Russian people have put up with it. There are very few elements of modern Democracy left in Russia. The country may call itself a Democracy, but there are fewer and fewer political structures to support this. Without public demand, independent media will never return to Russia. Without a nation of high Democratic Propensity (conditions which promote citizens’ Democratic Proclivity), I believe the nation will continue to revert. Without citizens who desire Democracy, Democracy will not return. It doesn't seem like Russian universities are helping, but what’s certain is that there is more scariness to come as power shifts more in the hands of the few.

It starts now—although it never should have stopped—Russia needs democratization. Democratization is a battle inside the minds of people as much as it is a battle over the presidency or a capital city. Democracy needs a guerrilla warrior and guerrilla tactics in an area overcome with non-democratic circumstances. And before you question the desires of Russian people, do not let racism take hold of you: Russian people are not somehow a different “class” of people that want entirely different things than other people. Underlying all of our differences is a common desire—the desire for freedom and peace.

P.S. the picture is "The Death of Socrates" found in a St. Petersburg art museum

Current Reading and Responses

Publicly responding to a few email comments: I've added the Psychohistory link and I'm interested in the potential contributions of this line of research to the DPM. Also I've added the Political Psychology Research, Inc. link. They have some very interesting publications. Now you can review the complete sample chapter. This should answer a lot of questions I've been posed. If you still have questions, consider posting them as comments instead of emails so everyone can hear the answers.
If you are interested in helping to administer the DPS, please email me. I'm trying to establish enough scores for a baseline.
In a couple days I will offer a lot of criticism of the current attempts (by the IRI, Pew Center, and others) to measure any kind of Democracy "endorsement."